be ready to embrace ai and blockchain innovations, the rise of boutique firms, and the surge of specialized credentials.
subscribe to 卡塔尔世界杯常规比赛时间 podcasts anywhere: apple, google, spotify, iheart, deezer, amazon music and audible, player fm, audacy, gaana (india), and boomplay (africa).
accounting arc
with donny shimamoto, liz mason, and byron patrick
center for accounting transformation
hosts byron patrick, cpa.citp, cgma; liz mason, cpa; and donny shimamoto, cpa.citp, cgma, explore the future of the accounting profession, making bold predictions about what the next decade holds. their conversation covers a wide range of topics, from technological advancements to diversity, equity, and inclusion, offering a comprehensive look at how accounting might evolve by 2034.
more: harper & co. cpas: the perspective of a non-accountant is imperative | menlo innovations: improve office culture by overhauling internal reviews | dustin wheeler: for serious cas success, hire tech teams | chase birky: overcoming paralysis by analysis |
exclusively for pro members. log in here or 2022世界杯足球排名 today.
one of the central themes of the discussion is the rapid pace of technological change. patrick, vice president of client success at the b3 method institute, emphasizes that technology will continue to accelerate, fundamentally altering the landscape of accounting. “technology is not slowing down, it’s accelerating exponentially,” he says. “and 10 years from now, there is going to be even more need for integrity within the technology that we are using.”
mason, ceo and founder of high rock accounting, brings attention to the potential and pitfalls of ai in accounting. while ai promises to streamline many processes, she warns that it must be managed carefully to avoid the amplification of biases. “generative ai utilizes these algorithms to take big sets of data, compress them down to be absorbed faster,” she explains. “and anytime you have a compression, you magnify bias.” donny shimamoto adds that ai will likely reach a level of maturity where it becomes a reliable tool for accountants, but this will require ongoing development and refinement of ai models.
the panelists also predict a rise in the number of niche accounting firms. “the next 10 years will see some significant turnover in traditional firms expiring,” patrick says. “and for every one of them, there will be three new hyper niche, hyper innovative firms that are going to be established.” mason agrees, noting that niche firms will focus on specific areas of expertise, making them competitive against larger, traditional firms. this trend is expected to lead to a significant turnover in the accounting industry, with many traditional firms consolidating or disappearing altogether. shimamoto supports this view, observing that the shift towards niche firms is already underway. he mentions that many new firms are being established by professionals who are disillusioned with the constraints of larger organizations and are eager to adopt the latest technologies from the start. this trend is likely to continue, creating a dynamic and diverse landscape of accounting firms.
the conversation also delves into the state of tax software, with mason highlighting the monopolistic nature of the tax software market and the high costs associated with developing new solutions. these factors have stifled innovation, leaving many firms reliant on outdated systems. however, she sees potential for advancements on the individual tax filing side, driven by initiatives like the irs’s direct file system.
the panelists say they are optimistic about the future of diversity, equity, and inclusion in accounting. shimamoto notes that while there has been progress in increasing diversity among accounting graduates, more work is needed to ensure these individuals advance to leadership roles. he suggests that a shift in focus from the problems of dei to the solutions that benefit everyone could drive meaningful progress over the next decade. “we will see a more inclusive profession, not purely in the dei way but in recognizing various specializations beyond the cpa, such as management accounting, forensic accounting, and financial planning,” he says.
“every direction you look at diversity, it increases output, it increases productivity, it increases satisfaction, it increases culture quality,” mason says, agreeing with shimamoto. “and despite all of that, it’s taken until the last couple of years for people to even put together dei task forces and think about this.” she says she is hopeful that the younger generation, which is more accustomed to diversity and technological change, will drive further improvements in dei practices.
the discussion also touches on the future of the cpa license. patrick and shimamoto explore the idea of a more inclusive accounting profession that recognizes various specializations. shimamoto predicts that the cpa will remain a prestigious credential, but other certifications, such as the cma and those related to forensic accounting and financial planning, will gain greater recognition and relevance. this broader recognition of different credentials could lead to multiple career paths within the accounting profession, each with its own set of rigorous standards and qualifications. the panelists believe that this shift will make the profession more attractive to a diverse range of individuals, further enhancing its overall strength and resilience.
10 key takeaways
- technology in accounting will accelerate exponentially over the next decade, with ai and blockchain playing crucial roles. these advancements will necessitate higher integrity and oversight within the profession.
- ai will become a more reliable tool for accountants, but it will require continuous development to ensure data integrity and prevent biases. this maturation process is expected to take several years.
- blockchain technology is anticipated to revolutionize financial transactions, particularly for international operations. it will enhance transparency and efficiency, although its full potential is yet to be realized.
- the next decade will see an increase in the number of niche accounting firms. these smaller, specialized firms will leverage new technologies to offer highly tailored services, challenging traditional firms to adapt.
- the tax software market remains monopolistic and resistant to change due to high development costs and complexity. however, there is optimism for advancements in individual tax filing solutions driven by initiatives like the irs’s direct file system.
- diversity, equity, and inclusion (dei) will continue to be a focus within the accounting profession. while progress has been made, particularly among accounting graduates, more efforts are needed to ensure these individuals advance to leadership roles.
- the future of the accounting profession will be more inclusive, recognizing various specializations beyond the cpa, such as management accounting, forensic accounting, and financial planning. this shift will create multiple career paths within the profession.
- offshore labor will evolve to become tech-enabled, reducing the reliance on manual labor. this shift will be driven by increasing labor costs and the need for greater efficiency.
- the next decade will see significant consolidation among traditional accounting firms, driven by mergers and acquisitions. concurrently, there will be a rise in the establishment of new, innovative niche firms.
- there will be an increased need for global services, driven by regulations in areas like privacy and cybersecurity. this will necessitate collaboration between firms across different countries to serve clients effectively.
transcript
(transcripts are made available as soon as possible. they are not fully edited for grammar or spelling.)
byron patrick 00:04
all righty. well, hello, everybody. we’re excited for another episode of the ark podcast here. today, we were thinking about having a little bit of fun and talking about, you know, our predictions for the future of the accounting profession. and when we talk about the future, we are talking right now about, you know, maybe 10 plus years out, like at the point where we really see some true impact to the trends that we’re seeing today. and we could possibly even maybe just fantasize about some of the things that that aren’t trending yet, for 10 years out with the rate of change going. so i think we’re in for a fun conversation of where things might be headed, or at least are fun to talk about where their head you know, and as, as i think out, you know, 10 years from now, i, the first thing i do is begin to reflect a little bit on, you know, where were we 10 years ago between today, you know, and there’s plenty of things that i could get lost in saying, you know, haven’t changed. but on the flip side, i think about how much has changed in the last 10 years, the types of services, the technology that is available to us today. and even the conversation around just the opportunities for cpas and different roles, has changed significantly. so as i kind of apply some of those ideas to to my future state. now, i think one of the most exciting things about looking forward 10 years is over 10 years plus, is thinking about just the different roles that i think accountants and cpas are going to be in 10 years from now, technology, you know, obviously, is is not slowing down, it’s accelerating exponentially. and 10 years from now, there is going to be an even more need for integrity within the technology that we are using. and there’s no better profession that i think is poised to be in a place to evaluate that. so i love to get your thoughts around, maybe that idea.
liz mason 02:28
that was a very strong opener. and i’m always vote for more integrity, because i think that that’s important, and unfortunately, has been lacking in certain areas in the past. but i do want to put some color on your 10 years ago versus 10 years in the future. if we think about like some of the technologies that have disrupted the way, like large companies have done, their closes and their financial preparation, right, like black line comes to mind, right? black line was founded in 2001. like, that was 23 years ago now. that’s kind of insane, right. and then when you start thinking about cloud, like i founded my firm in 2013. and we started using cloud software, day one, that was 11 years ago. and we have been using that completely. we’ve never really used server based products at all. and that’s not to say like we haven’t, you know, had to transition people off of old school server products. but we that’s about what we put in place, right. and we’ve been thinking about how to make, you know, general ledger shareable across the world, real time numbers, all of these things we’ve been talking about for 10 years. we’re slowly starting to get there, right. but another big technology that you think about introduced like the ai auditor mind bridge, they were founded in 2015. so that’s nine years ago now. and so when you start to put into perspective, the disruptors the technology that exists, where it’s coming from, you know, quickbooks online, xero, they’ve been around for a long time. and you know, we’re just getting people off of the desktop product, because quickbooks is, you know, sunsetting, what that’s going to look like, and it’s insane to think about how much technology has been available for a very long time that has not been effectively utilized and why and how do we predict what’s happening in 10 years from now, considering the rate of change in our industry and the resistance to change? right.
donny shimamoto 04:35
i think we’re seeing or at least i’m seeing in the near term, finally some that resistance is waning. and i think the big we keep talking about the staffing shortage and all that i think that’s playing a very big piece of that. but i but also i think in it, and it’s kind of i think implied a little with the time that you’re mentioning these these solutions for us coming on to the coming on and being available. and then there’s also right now all this hype around ai and like it’s the cure all for everything, which we all know it’s not. but i also had an interesting conversation with enrico, the ceo of lightkeeper, where he pointed out for them to get their ai models to the maturity point where the introduction of bad data into into the ai isn’t going to break the model and make the basically make the model hallucinate. and they’re dealing with data not with the mlms and generative ai, that took seven years until they had that confidence. so i think even this with this whole ai trend, well, if we’re going 10 years forward, we hopefully by that time, we’ll see the maturity, but it is going to take as enrico pointed out probably seven or more years for any of the newer products coming in.
liz mason 05:53
oh, that assumes that they’re not progressing in terms of the algorithms they’re using to train the data, or to train the ai on the datasets, right. and those are actually getting faster underlying that. so there is progress in multiple directions. but at the same time, understanding generative ai utilizes these algorithms to take big sets of data, compress them down to be absorbed faster. and anytime you have a compression, you magnify bias. and so you have the secondary layer of issue with generative ai, where it’s magnifying biases and training these large scale systems to generate more bias, which of course is not okay, especially when it comes to finance and accounting. and so if you take current state technology, multiply it out 10 years, we will have giant material, materially incorrect financial statements created by generative ai. and it will hallucinate and it will hallucinate and really bizarre ways that people won’t be able to predict because they’ll be relying on that data far too quickly. so i think there’s like multiple layers of technology progression that has to happen. there needs to be some legislation around ethics and data. and then there also also needs to be like a removal of this whole layer of legislation around how we have to do our jobs as accountants as well.
donny shimamoto 07:14
your point right there, i think is the important tie back to the profession. because most people don’t realize that that’s actually our role. whether it’s in a finance role and an internal audit role and external auditor role, it’s our role to look at is the, what is the integrity of the system, and isn’t producing information that’s being used in decision making, whether it’s for internal decision making, or investments? is it actually producing information that i can rely on and trust, meaning it’s accurate, complete, and all this other stuff we always talk about, including fit for years, which also starts to come up when you look at ai? how is all of this is and that’s part of what we do in accounting, it’s really part of the auditing discipline, but it’s built throughout everything. because in finance, we implement internal controls to make sure all of all of this data and the presentation of the data is appropriate.
byron patrick 08:03
yeah, no doubt. i mean, a and that to everything you just said, i mean, we exist to not take the hands off the wheel, because the moment we have to take the hands off the wheel, there will be accidents, and you won’t know it until things fall apart. but, you know, i, i think about, you know, all of this with ai. and liz, you mentioned something that i think really sticks out for me, especially as i think about the next 10 years, you know, you establish a firm in the cloud. and, you know, there were many firms that exist today that were innovative in their day, they probably started off like using the coolest hankies in 1974 or whatever the case may be.
liz mason 08:55
i think writers are right,
byron patrick 08:57
you know, like they had the electric typewriter with the like, you know…
liz mason 09:02
white out automatically turn.
byron patrick 09:05
yeah, and, and so they were innovative of the day, but you know, you you become top heavy, you become weighted down with process, and it becomes difficult to be maintain that innovation. and then new organizations get established, and they don’t have all of that weight. so you can start right there in the cloud. and i think about over the next 10 years, i mean, just this year, i’ve seen already multiple announcements of people starting their own firms, and there are going to be so many more new firms that can establish in the next 10 years without the constraints of of people and processing systems that will be adopting the latest and greatest technologies and kind of pushing the industry which is super exciting when i just think about you know, you know, the the firms that were born in the cloud that will likely maintain at some level of innovation, just because that is the nature in which you were founded, and then all of these other new firms that are going to be created using the new technologies of the day, i just think it’s kind of a cool time to exist in the profession.
liz mason 10:20
it is really cool. and having been part of many systems upgrades in my time, and i’m sure donnie can speak to this probably better than i can, the lost productivity you have in a year of change is so harmful. and it’s so difficult from, you know, a change management perspective, all of it, it’s difficult for workflow, it’s difficult for people emotionally, it’s difficult for them to learn new things and change it over. and so when you talk about these firms starting up in in an in an innovative say they have so much of an edge against any firm that has any kind of established system, or process or tech stack, even if it is incredibly innovative. and that’s something i talked about internally with my team all the time, which is the next new client, we get, we put on this new tech stack, our team starts learning it as we go. and then we go back to the old clients and reboot them over and over. and so it’s a constant state of change and innovation. and that gets tiring for a lot of people. and a lot of the accountants that we’ve hired that are very traditional accounting minded humans, that didn’t grow up in the state of change that we have right now, in the state of innovation in the tech industry in general. they can’t hang to put it bluntly. and so that leads to more turnover. and so you know, i think that it’s it’s imperative that we get the newest generation coming out of school excited about this stuff, because they did grow up in the tech boom, and they did grow up knowing next year, everything’s gonna be different that their phone might have a different operating system, and every app they’re using is different. they know how to use computers in a way that you know, and i’m dating myself, but in a way that like nobody in my high school class did, right. when i went into college, like i took my tax class on paper.
donny shimamoto 12:13
so, translate that into a prediction. are we then predicting that these these firms, these news firms, smaller firms that are starting up are going to be more of the norm in 10 years? is that maybe the prediction that we’ll see that because i agree with you, byron, i’m seeing a way more i’ve had people approaching me that want to start their own firms. and it’s not just the next generation, we’ve worked with a couple of partners are already partners at firms that are going off on their own from a larger firm going off on their own. and we’ve been helping them like, hey, yeah, let’s get your tech stack right from the start. and let’s make sure we build in all of this ability to do with the change all the way from the start. so i that’s a trend we’re already seeing.
byron patrick 12:59
yeah, i think the next 10 years will be some significant turnover in traditional firms expiring. and for every one of them, there will be three new hyper niche, hyper innovative firms that are going to be established. so i do think the landscape of what firms, the number of firms and what firms look like changes significantly in the next 10 years.
liz mason 13:29
agree. yeah. so i think the statistics i’ve seen are globally, the accounting industry is like a $650 billion industry, right? so this is a huge industry, we’re not talking about a micro industry here. and it’s an industry that is not going away, there is always going to be a need for what we do. it’s just how we do it, that will change, right. and so i think, to your point, byron, the niche industries are going to get or the niche firms are going to get more prevalent, because they will become hyper expert at the one thing they can do in this world. and now that we have a very global economy, that kind of opens up a lot of opportunity for that one small niche that you’re looking at, whereas historically, you couldn’t really do that, because there wasn’t enough business to you know, meet your goal. yeah, exactly. and i think those niches are going to change slightly in in how they work. for example, you know, you might have like a very hyper focused valuation type firm that does you like we actually work with one that only does valuations for cannabis companies worldwide. that’s all they do. and that’s super hyper niche the way they do it is really cool. they use some cool technology. but that couldn’t have existed. i mean, the industry itself didn’t exist a long time ago, but that couldn’t have existed in any industry in the way it does today. and also we’re seeing hyper local niches as well. so people that are doing you know, i live in phoenix, there’s a thriving not very big tech industry here. and there’s people that only do that, that’s it, they will only work with local venture capitalists, they will only work with local businesses. and part of that is because they have much better connections and they’re able to network better in that area. but they’re okay with staying a certain size, because they’re able to utilize that technology to get to the profit margin that they want, versus before where you have to scale to a certain size to even get close to that profit margin. and so it’s changed the way that businesses are working. my other prediction is, we will continue to see for probably the next five years, significant consolidation of the older accounting firms, because this industry is so big that a lot of people are noticing and saying, oh, this is ripe for innovation. once the laws change, these will become hyper profitable companies. let’s buy them all right now before they know before they realize what’s going on. that will after another five years, we’ll end up with some big consolidated entities, some big, you know, private equity backed companies that grow up. and then at the same time, as that’s happening, we’ll have all these small, little niche firms that are very excited to do their one thing and have their freedom start. and so by 10 years from now, we’ll end up probably exactly where we were 10 years ago, with a bunch of really large firms and a bunch of tiny firms.
donny shimamoto 16:19
i’ll definitely agree with that. and i’ll build on that vision for the larger firms, which is what i’m starting to see because of my involvement with the cpa firm associations is increased global services and the need for global services. and that’s not just because the firms want to serve globally, it’s because regulation, like privacy esg, with the movements in the eu versus the states and the other countries all coming along as well. there, i’m seeing this and cybersecurity, i’m seeing a lot of increasing need, where firms are really having to even small while i’m gonna say mid size firms, even midsize firms are having to collaborate with firms and other countries to serve clients, because even a small business can potentially be international.
byron patrick 17:07
oh, yeah, absolutely. absolutely. yeah, it’s gonna be interesting. i mean, i do think there, there will probably be new relationships, we’ll see. get created between between organizations, i mean, hyper niching is, is is great. having that hyper focus and expertise in certain things, but it does limit you sometimes in the sense that then you have clients looking elsewhere for expertise. so you know, there, there may be something where i don’t know if it exists today, but an association of hyper niche firms that all aligned to work together when sharing, you know, projects, revenue clients, whatever the case may be.
liz mason 18:00
so i’m going to change a little bit of the topic, my next prediction has to do with outsourcing. so we have seen a movement in the last 10 years of firms to hire cheaper labor in other parts of the world. well, we’re at a point now where the cheaper labor and other parts of the world can go instead of working for these big outsourcing shops, they can go work directly for companies, as independent contractors living in other places, and they’re making a whole lot more. so the economy of utilizing cheaper markets is getting smaller by the day. and i think that on top of that these large outfits that have hired, you know, 1000s of employees and the philippines and indonesia, in india, they are starting to develop their own technology. so they’re hiring their own software developers, and they’re utilizing tech on the back end, to do the same services that they were doing people based, and they are slowly but surely coming to market with these tools. i think in 10 years, a lot of those companies will pivot instead of being manual labor, they will be tech enabled labor, where the back end review is done overseas, however, you’re paying a lower rate than you would to just buy the technology off the shelf from you know, a us based tech firm.
donny shimamoto 19:22
i agree with that prediction. i’ve been working with a bunch of the outsourcers and the message i’ve been giving them was right now with the way you are organized purely as labor. it’s just a triage until automation catches up. and i’m encouraging them to even increase their own profit margins, they need to also adopt the technology. the other interesting thing i think there is and this is where i might disagree with you a little bit i think in division, i think you and i are aligned, but i might disagree with you a little bit on the some of the labor and the split off because what we’re it split off into likes smaller solos, the problem that we’re seeing i’m seeing with that, as i’m working with others is the reliability what how does it there’s increased risk. so we’ll see the larger firms continue to work with more reliable, less risk labor, but i do agree with you that we are going to see that the technology triage and and that’s going to also be because of the increase in cost of labor, offshore labor.
liz mason 20:28
i wish that i actually disagreed with you. but i think that there’s a split between large firm life and small, firm life, right. and smaller firms are much more likely to take a risk on an independent contractor, especially if it’s going to save them 20% over working with a large outsourcing provider to mitigate that risk, but the big firms absolutely won’t. so actually, you know, basically,
donny shimamoto 20:51
because that is there is some of these that and maybe it’s legacy thinking, right, the partners that are splitting off from larger firms, they’re, i’m seeing they’re more risk adverse. so they’re starting to look and say, hey, i don’t want to work with a one off shop, because what happens if they disappear, i want to ensure continuity of the service to my clients. so i’m going to mitigate that worse risk with working with a bigger shop.
liz mason 21:15
and i’m seeing people, you know, in the one to 10 million firm size, hiring people straight from linkedin that left some of those bigger outsourcing shops and or independent contractors just doing it on their own now from wherever they live. and i you know, i think that it’s also interesting that you’re having people start their own firm that are risk averse, because that is a giant risk in and of itself. and finding the courage to start a company, i think, requires a little bit of arrogance and a little bit of insanity. but generally not adversity to risk.
donny shimamoto 21:53
i think it’s portfolio risk, if you look at it. so i’m doing all these other things that are risky, i’m going to mitigate risk on the other side. so i don’t have to worry about continuity of operations. maybe. but again, i think it’s reflective of the different segments, which is why i love our discussions, because you tend i think, to work with more progressive, more innovative, and a lot of startups, i tend to work with little, i don’t know if mature is actually the right word, but traditional traditional trying to be more innovative, maybe i’m going to call it that way.
byron patrick 22:28
but how about it thinking, you know, 1010 plus years out. and i’m, i’ve been sitting here trying to think of an example. and i do only one i can think of it has nothing to do with our profession. but i can remember having a deep debate, it was gosh, like early 2000s, with some people i worked with when when i declared that blockbuster would be bankrupt within 10 years. and out, i got an email from a co worker, like the day they they went bankrupt, because it was literally 10 and a half years after i’d like made that statement. and so i think about now with, you know, the emerging technologies and ways of doing business. what today that that is maybe commonplace or very popular might not exist in 10 years. what what is there any tech vendors? i mean, look at look at our tax prep, it’s been the same tax prep solutions for 20 plus years. that our reason for that, frankly, holding us down and and is in the next 10 years does that landscape change? or, you know, does the big for landscape change does pop 100.
liz mason 23:52
i did a deep dive on tax solutions a couple years ago, because it’s a huge market. it’s completely underserved. the options are outdated at best. and some of them are like so manually historical that it’s infuriating to us and creates a giant bottleneck in the industry. and so i found a few things. first off, we have miniature monopolies on the tax software. anytime a startup tax software gets to a certain size, it gets acquired for a ridiculous amount of money by these firms that already have established tax software and either it gets integrated into their systems minimally or completely shut down. and a lot of that has to do with self preservation. right? you have a hold on an industry, its compliance related industry, it’s not going anywhere. it’s only getting more complicated and more expensive. and you can raise your rates if there’s no competition, so shut it down smash it and that has happened very consistently in the last 20 years. the other side of it is there are are so many different jurisdictions in the united states to comply with tax that it’s exorbitantly expensive to even build something that can satisfy most firms, right. and you can’t launch a tax product with federal only because what are they going to do about states, right. and now, like, we work with e commerce, businesses that fail in every state, and then 10 jurisdictions in ohio, and it’s just insane, and there’s no way and we’re a small firm, there’s no way we could buy a solution that didn’t have the ability to support that many jurisdictions. and you can’t launch that in any meaningful way, without a significant amount of time and money going into the backend of building it. so there’s a couple of things on that front, i do think we will see some innovation, but i don’t think it’s going to be in the direction of brand new tech software coming up that all of a sudden, you know, takes over the market, i think it’ll be more small. and in the planning side, and in the front end side. and i think that there’s a lot of opportunity for taking, you know, taking the stack of documents, you get putting them into pdf, running it through a planning software that can read and analyze, and then push out reports that can be uploaded into the tax prep software, i think, you know, the api’s on the tax prep software are getting better. i’ve talked to a few of them about what that looks like granted, you know, it’s 20 to $100,000 to access those api’s even play with them. but i do think that there will be upfront moreso than complete compliance software overhaul. sorry to be a debbie downer on that front end.
byron patrick 26:49
i mean, you know, it’s… it’s no surprise. and, you know, even putting aside the competitive landscape of it, and the amount of money that exists, the i think the overarching, just complexity to the level of local jurisdictions. and it just, i can’t even imagine starting at square one, unless, you know, somebody creates an engine that just can be licensed at a reasonable cost to be able to accommodate all of those things. which in case, we’re still all going back to the same vendor anyway. but, you know, i, i do wonder if there’s other places, maybe that i mean, even take, take the audit landscape to, again, we have primarily the same vendors. in the financial statement, audit space, there’s some ancillary tools that have been bolted on that that are excellent. i mean, we’ve already mentioned mind bridge, but, you know, and there’s been talk of daz, and, you know, so some other players, but, you know, in the next 10 years, you know, are we still thinking binders and engagement.
donny shimamoto 28:09
so i’m gonna convert liz’s prediction, summarize liz’s prediction, as the tax tax compliance, complexity will not change, resulting then in also a, that there won’t be a change in the tax software. and then in with byron, i agree with you, i don’t know if we’re going to really get to see me, it’s interesting to see some of the progress with that, or that dynamic audit solution from the aicpa. but i but in audit, i’m a little more hopeful, because we are seeing all the ancillary outside supporting solutions start to develop and what i’m hoping to see there, and actually, maybe i will predict this, that what we’re going to see is that the ancillary solutions will solidify enough that there will be a wherewithal to create a platform that they can integrate with that will optimize the whole. and i’ll draw the analogy to the bookkeeping side, because once we started to see the best of breed approach, come into the caspase. we saw we’re finally seeing the demise of quickbooks desktop, right? and so i mean, maybe that’s an analogy to look at, maybe, maybe audit is gonna go that way. and that took much longer than 10 years. so i don’t know if that’s actually going to happen in 10 years, but maybe we should start to see the movement for that in 10 years.
byron patrick 29:31
i’m picturing a bit of a voltron type of audit experience.
donny shimamoto 29:36
now you’re really dated yourself.
liz mason 29:42
so i’m going to bifurcate my tax software prediction. i was talking about business compliance. i do think we will see innovation on the individual side, because clearly there’s a much larger market on that side. and i know the irs is even toying with their direct file. i think they have a beta this year, where you know, the irs has created their own tax software where you go directly to their website and file. and i think we’ve seen in other countries and clearly other countries have way easier taxes than the us. so i’m just going to preface with that. but we have seen in other countries where, you know, the information is already with the central government agency. and so individuals can literally log into their account with that agency, double check, everything looks right, sign off on it, and they’re done with their taxes. right. and i think that we are slowly but surely moving to that, from a individual perspective with the federal government. it’s very slow, because of how antiquated their systems are, and how much back end duct tape is happening to even get them to talk to each other. but i do think in 10 years, we will have more innovation on the individual side than the business side. yeah, yeah. and
byron patrick 30:58
probably, you know, based on all the tik tok advice, i think every person in the country will have a a s corp. and at that point, they won’t be able to direct file anyway.
liz mason 31:13
so, like, yeah, well, tik tok is where i get my tax advice. so
donny shimamoto 31:20
in preparation for this, i actually pulled up the aicpa horizons 2025. report, because that was drafted in 2011. and it’s supposed to take us to 2025 next year. and that was very interesting to come back and look at i was on the advisory panel. so i had a little more insight information and insight into that. there were 10 different imperatives in there, we’ve actually already discussed technology, which was a big one. and technology used to be a cpa core competency, we took it out of the cpa core competency, because we felt it would be embedded throughout the profession. i think we are seeing that and our conversation earlier, i think further emphasizes that it’s just going to be the norm, which is also reflective of the prediction that the outsourcing firms will become tech enabled. so this is really technology globally will be integrated and into the way that profession operates. another piece of that was the kind of that and these two, these two work together. one was that the trust in the profession will open up doors for us to operate outside of traditional accounting and finance roles, which we’ve talked about some as well. and i think esg, which we brought up earlier, cyber data, all of this stuff, all is going to play into that piece. and the second half of that one is that there’s going to be a rise in advisory services. and we’ve talked about quite a bit of that as well. so i think all of those are validating. the other one that i looked at in there was the whole diversity aspect. part of the leading up to the cp horizons was that this they introduced this concept of the beijing of america, meaning that it was going to be less white and that by 2025, which i don’t know if this was actually true, i forgot to look it up, that there will be more minorities than white. in the us. i actually took from there and went and looked at the aicpa trends report which looks at accounting, student graduation, accounting major graduations, hiring by accounting firms and moving movement up to partners and accounting firms. so the progress that we’ve seen in the last 10 years increase in diversity of accounting graduates, particularly hispanic and latino, and multi ethnic had some really big jumps. now, granted, they were smaller percentages. so bigger jumps are going to be more expected there. as we went into the hiring, all non white ethnicities actually saw an increase there. so i think we’re seeing some progress in that one. and then the third one that the aicpa had was the changes in accounting partners and finance functions within us firms. and that one, also across the board, we saw progress with non white minorities, or basically non white ethnicities, getting more partner representation at the top. but the thing that actually made me a little sad was i then kind of compared the hiring and 2010 to the partner levels and 2020. so 10 years, which might be a little short for making partner. but it’s i think it’s kind of representative at least to give us a picture of what’s happening. that one made me sad because that one across the board we actually saw drops in all non white ethnicities. so basically, people are coming into the profession but not making part staying to make partner and that’s where i feel like we have a lot of work to do. so tying that into my prediction. having said just ah, what i’m also seeing is a shift in the way that we’re are approaching diversity, equity and inclusion. i feel like right now, it’s very, it’s a very divisive issue in our country. but i think we’re going to see, and actually in the center, we’re starting to work with some of the people doing this as we’re trying to shift the way this discussion is occurring. so i’m gonna make the super super bowl prediction, not that this is going to go away, but that we’re going to have made significant progress in this within that 10 year span. so it’s probably still going to be a problem to a certain extent, but we’re going to have made more progress than we did in the last 10 years.
byron patrick 35:37
i like that.
liz mason 35:40
i will stand behind a better future. it’s also baffling to me how every, like every direction, you look at diversity, it increases output, it increases productivity, it increases satisfaction, it increases culture, quality. and despite all of that, it’s taken until the last couple of years for people to even put together like dei task force and think about this or put in place policies that promote diversity. and it’s absolutely mind boggling to me why anyone in this day and age would stand in the way of that type of progress. and, you know, i think that, that it’s hopeful, hopeful for a better future. and i also believe that that bias generates more bias. and as it does with the technology, it will with humans as well, because that’s human nature, right. and so i think that there’s unfortunately been a dominance of white males in our industry. and they have perpetuated more white males in the industry. and i think that, you know, the progress for women has been marked and incredible. and unfortunately, the progress for minorities to not and it’s sad, and actually detrimental to our profession as a whole.
donny shimamoto 37:05
when this is where i, this is where for the center, we’re actually taking a approach, which is why i think we will see it because i’m getting resonance with it that instead of focusing on the differences, rather than racial, gender, whatever other aspects of diversity you want to look at, we are going to start focusing on the the solutions and how enacting the solution benefits everyone, not just the minority, but even the older white male, which is the dominant right now. right. so i think our theory is by reframing this to show how everyone benefits from these things, that we’ll be able to see more adoption in the next 10 years.
liz mason 37:45
i would agree with that. and i think that there’s more push for that coming from the younger generation, because they haven’t dealt with, you know, the biases or the bigotry that comes with not being the standard white male.
byron patrick 38:02
no doubt, it’ll i i’m very optimistic for progress in the next decade. i, you know, it’s probably like a lot of things. it won’t be as much as we want. but hopefully, it’ll be, you know, still continuing to trend in the right direction and continuing to improve. one, one last, maybe topic, i think we’re probably getting close to wrap up. but the one thing that just strikes me is what you mentioned, donnie, you know, the horizons report, you know, kind of the the evolution and licensure that we’ve seen with the the new exam. so i just wonder in the next 10 years, what does that mean for the license? what what does the the landscape look like for the cpa license as a license? i admit, i don’t have a good prediction, i have a lot of like, question marks in my mind, because i think the accounting profession as it stands, brings immense value to to business to the society to the world. and most of that has nothing to do with the licensed services that we provide the the license services we provide, i mean, are pretty much limited to audit. so i just wonder, you know, maybe your thoughts around you know, what, what does the landscape and the license look like in the next 10 years as it relates to the profession?
donny shimamoto 39:46
i love it. i love it. so i’m glad you use the word profession because i’m so my prediction in the next 10 years for this is that we will see a more inclusive as a profession, i don’t mean that purely in the di way. but i mean that in there is currently still to today, this has been along around for a long time, this elitism around the cpa, and that the cpa is the profession. and we’re already seeing i’ve already been seeing movements in the last at least five years. but it’s, i see a lot more traction with it, that it truly is going to be the accounting profession, which is inclusive of management, accounting, forensic accounting, financial planning, wealth management, which are not part of the cpa. tax prepares, even eas, right. and then also the integration of other disciplines like science or technology, cyber, all of these, so it, we will be less of an accountant focused profession, but that the accounting profession, which is the services that we all deliver to the public, whether it is from a firm or within the finance department, that we really will see this more inclusive profession. and because of that, the cpa, though, i think will remain and continue to be a i was gonna say elite, but i don’t want to do that, because that implies there’ll be a higher end, i don’t know what word to use, you know, that prestigious, rigorous your prestigious credential, but we’ll see the other credentials, like the cma and all of the other ones from the other disciplines also gain relevance and become valid career paths for students that want to major not just in accounting, but i actually i would say, i got even got to correct myself. it’s not about majoring in accounting, but that want to be involved in the accounting profession.
liz mason 41:57
yeah, i agree with that. and i think every other major, professional designation that’s governed by state boards has multiple tracks. and it’s very interesting how elitist the cpa world has been considering all these ancillary services are just as important and in some cases, more important. and so it’s just it’s very interesting, like i audited for four years when i first started in the profession. and effectively, i did that to get my cpa license. but i have never signed an audit report. and i don’t plan to ever in my life, right. so it’s very interesting that i have that designation that was traditionally set up for for that particular set of skills. and i know how to do it, theoretically. but i wouldn’t trust myself doing it today.
donny shimamoto 42:52
you know, i’ve got it all the way to the point of preparation, but i’ve never signed either.
liz mason 42:57
right, like it’s, and so, you know, i think it’s really interesting that we have taken this long to get to that point. but i do think in 10 years, we’ll have multiple tracks that will all be part of a more inclusive profession, where everybody is hopefully working where symbiotically and utilizing cool tech. but the one thing we haven’t brought up is blockchain. you know, like a couple years ago, blockchain was the only thing people were talking about, right? they’re saying it’s gonna completely change the way accounting is done away. accounting systems are structured the way people look at these transactions. and then it kind of like died because nothing happened with it. nothing was built on blockchain that was usable to the profession in a meaningful way. i do think in 10 years, we will see some blockchain development around financial transactions. i think there are some really interesting companies creating stable coin, from the crypto side to be able to do cross border transactions in very meaningful ways that large companies are utilizing. and small companies will start to, especially the ones that do a lot of work in different parts of the world, and the economy becomes more global. and i think that because of that, and because of the way banks are starting to innovate mostly in other countries, but starting to innovate in the way that they’re collecting data and utilizing it, i do think that we’ll end up with blockchain type transaction control to where we’ll be able to see the other side of the transaction no matter what, and it’ll be, you know, a recorded event. and i do think that that will change in 10 years, the way we look at some of these financial reports, i don’t think it’s going to completely upturn everything we have today, especially not in the current us regulatory environment, which we all know takes more than 10 years to change. but i do think there will be significant progress from a global perspective
donny shimamoto 44:52
completely agree.
byron patrick 44:54
yeah. yeah, i think that’s, that is actually really fun to think about. this idea of it’s probably not the right term, but kind of the ubiquitous gl, if you will, where, you know, the ledger is kind of this universal ledger, and everybody just kind of plugs into it. and i mean, yeah, the potential is there. and, you know, as we talked about blockchain during the hype of blockchain, i mean, everybody was fantasizing about so many different implementations of it. and, you know, i think to a certain degree, it got so weighed down by the, the overhead of the crypto space and just the challenges there. but yeah, in 10 years, it’ll be really interesting to see, see what played a…
donny shimamoto 45:43
actually, a lot of what you said, i don’t agree with but we can maybe do another episode on that, because we got, there’s a lot to unpack in that. that’s what i was, i was like, oh, i gotta get ready to disagree with liz. but then what she said, i actually totally agree with. but let me wrap this out since i was at the hour, so i’m going to summarize. so we’ve got technology supporting accounting services will be mature and integrated in integrated into the way the firm operates. we’re gonna see blockchain matured with better controls in currency transactions, especially for international transactions. our third one is the nist firm is the norm for small firms, older and traditional firms will have consolidated a lot via m&a. and but generalists will still exist in fourth offshoring will have evolved to be tech enabled labor, which is basically norming, what we’re currently seeing in the us across, not just in the us, but in more mature maybe economies, i’ll say that, we’re going to see that across all of the even evolving economies, business tax compliance, complexity will not have changed, and will still be at the mercy of a few preparation software providers due to high investment required to adjust federal and all the state and municipal tax laws and regulations. but we will see more innovation on the individual side and dei practices will have been adopted due to a shift in approach from a focus on the problem to looking at how solutions benefit all. and in the broader scheme of that we will see in 10 years a more inclusive accounting profession. miss anything?
byron patrick 47:30
if you did, i have no idea what. it was pretty good summary there, danny, good notes,
liz mason 47:35
i’m gonna do a final prediction, which is the three of us will still be talking about what’s coming in 10 years in tech.
donny shimamoto 47:46
we’re not going to just get to be retired and living large by that.
liz mason 47:50
i mean, i can still talk about it if i’m retired.
donny shimamoto 47:54
good point. good point. that’s good. all right. well, thanks so much. appreciate all of this. and i hope listeners you’ll join us oh, actually, i mean, i’m gonna mention a few things. we talked about founders. we have another episode all about founders. so if you’re curious about that, and listen to that episode, as well. and also, we have a ton of episodes that really just look at the career paths. so if you’re interested about all this diversity, that we’ve talked about, not diversity in the di since by diversity and what you can do with an accounting degree, come check out those podcasts as well. thanks so much, liz byron, good to see you guys.