inflation no longer the top concern.
by 卡塔尔世界杯常规比赛时间 research
business leaders keep an eye on the economy the way farmers keep an eye on the weather. both are always watching, and they tend to see, and sense, more than others.
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and apparently those in business are sensing a shift in the economic winds, according to a survey just released by the american institute of cpas.
optimism was sulking
back in the olden days of the second quarter of this year, optimism for the economy was sulking at only 14 percent, and pessimism was surging up to 56 percent.
but in the third quarter, something happened. optimism more than doubled to hit 29 percent, and pessimism went into steep decline to reach 34 percent.
expansion plans followed suit, though perhaps a bit cautiously. plans to expand bumped up from 43 percent to 50 percent, and plans to contract fell almost in half, from 46 percent to just 24 percent.
in defiance of widespread fears of a recession, revenue outlook perked up from 1.3 percent in q2 to 1.9 percent in q3. at the same time, near-term profitability, looking forward from q3, crossed a crucial line, with projected profits recuperating from a negative 0.9 percent to a positive 0.1 percent. the shift didn’t call for a ticker-tape parade, but it could have been worse.
the challenge: human assets
the general optimism and plans for expansion seem to be cut short by a problem long suffered by the accounting industry: the lack of qualified personnel.
just a few months ago, inflation was the business world’s primary concern, but inflationary pressure has dropped and so has concern.
at the same time, the scarcity of skilled personnel has shot up from fourth place to first place.
the painful paradox
it’s a painful paradox: everybody has a job, so they’re spending money. but just as companies need to expand, they can’t find personnel because everybody has a job.
the personnel problem spans companies of all size. look at these stats for the largest and smallest companies responding to the survey:
over $1 billion+
- 43 percent have too few employees.
- 24 percent plan to hire.
- 19 percent hesitant to hire.
under $10 million
- 33 percent have too few employees.
- 26 percent plan to hire.
- 7 percent hesitant to hire.
the numbers were similar for companies of intermediate sizes. overall, only half say they have the right number of employees, and only 8 percent report an excess.
and when business leaders report concerns about inflation, they (43 percent of them) are primarily concerned with increases in the cost of labor.
the big question
the big question, in the news every day and on everyone’s mind is: is there or will there be an economic recession?
opinions have shifted substantially over the past half a year.
at the end of 2022, 40 percent felt we were in a recession. now only 17 percent say so.
at the end of 2022, 51 percent expected recession by the end of 2023. now only 16 percent say so.
opinions are torn over what comes next. twenty-seven percent expect a recession next year. twenty-six percent expect no recession. but the overall sense of optimism has most companies heading full steam ahead.