… especially for small businesses.
by 卡塔尔世界杯常规比赛时间 research
accountants have a unique view of economies – local, national and micro. more than anyone else, they scrutinize numbers, the real numbers, the numbers that real companies and real families report. they see what’s really happening in black and white … and red.
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and what they’re seeing now, in terms of economics, according to latest results from the 2023 cpatrendlines busy season barometer, doesn’t look good.
the economic future didn’t look good when the first responses came in, and now it’s looking a little worse.
in january, about 28 percent of respondents thought their clients would be doing somewhat worse (27 percent) or, in just a few cases, much worse (just under 1 percent). but just over 22 percent thought their clients would do somewhat or much better this year.
now, 28 percent say “somewhat worse,” and 1.5 percent say “much worse.” the “better” categories barely cleared 21 percent.
consistent indicators
the difference is statistically insignificant, but it’s insignificant in the wrong direction. trouble is, we’re seeing a similar drop in other indicators.
prognostications for their own firms are tilting downward. in january, just over 11 percent foresaw a year somewhat or much worse. now that number’s passed 14 percent. and where about 50 percent said their firms might do better, now that total’s dropped to 46 percent.
oddly enough, the respondents’ outlook for small business in general is rising in the opposite direction. in january 59 percent were expecting trouble, but now it’s only 56 percent. the number hoping for better conditions dropped a tad. the percentage expecting no significant change for small businesses rose from 19 to 25.
a month ago, asked what the conditions for small businesses would look like, 27 percent said revenues would fall; now it’s 31 percent. now, as then, 27 percent feel revenue may get somewhat better, but not one respondent says it will get much better.
the underlying culprit
payroll costs seem to be the underlying culprit. last month, a good 51 percent said payroll pressures would get worse (with 5 percent predicting it could get much worse). now 55 percent have joined the camp of pessimists. ten percent once hoped it might get better, but that’s dropped to 8 percent.
projected hiring is looking worse, too. where just under 8 percent thought it might get worse, now it’s close to 10 percent. better? the 18 percent who said “somewhat better” has dropped to 16 percent.
any of these numbers alone would have little significance. but they all seem to be agreeing: things could get tight, and employment could suffer.
cpa advice to small businesses
recognizing impending trouble, cpas are offering some advice for small business. they tend to offer versions of “be prepared” and “value staff.”
- william daniels, who sees revenues and profits dipping, says, “be proactive. things are getting harder. be frugal. watch your bottom line closely.”
- greg lynch, a partner at lynch, cotton associates who sees payroll problems coming up, advises, “when you find good staff, compensate them well and treat them well – they’re tough to replace. and remember that the old adage is incorrect – the customer is not always right. a good employee will make you way more money than a good customer will.”
- rick chassey, in kenwood, calif., agrees with lynch, saying, “happy employees make happy customers and a happy business.”
- trevor hurst, at thompson, mcconnell & hurst in union city, tenn., echoes those sentiments: “be conservative, hoard cash for a rainy day and make sure you keep your good employees.”
what’s your advice for small businesses? where do you see the economy going? share your insights in the 5-minute survey of the busy season barometer.