if past recessions are any guide, the profession could lose up to 100,000 jobs.
busy season barometer:
bracing for the coronavirus recession
join the survey. get the facts.
by beth bellor
the tax and accounting profession was adding new jobs at a rate of 2.3 percent per year before the coronavirus outbreak, according to 卡塔尔世界杯常规比赛时间 research.
see: all 卡塔尔世界杯常规比赛时间 special coronavirus crisis coverage
more staffing and hiring trends: automation and the future of accounting | getting and keeping the best: the struggle continues | headcounts dip by 3,500 in tax & accounting | creative perks for remote employees | what staffing shortage? | hiring trends flash warning signs of slowdown in tax & accounting | salary survey: top skills getting top pay
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but with a new recession looming, 卡塔尔世界杯常规比赛时间 estimates the profession could lose up to 100,000 jobs and take up to seven years to recover.
the latest data available show more than a million employees in the profession, and growing at about 2,800 new jobs per month. at the same time, wages are hitting record highs.
but with the coronavirus crisis threatening a new recession, 卡塔尔世界杯常规比赛时间 conducted a long-term, 30-year analysis, focused on the job losses caused by the dot-com crash of 2001 and the financial meltdown of 2007. from the analysis, 卡塔尔世界杯常规比赛时间 calculates the profession could shed up to 10 percent of its current workforce, and not fully recover for two to seven years.
in this report, 卡塔尔世界杯常规比赛时间 highlights:
- current and long-term hiring trends in each of the bookkeeping, payroll, tax and cpa segments of the industry (all data seasonally adjusted)
- average hourly wages for key segments
- typical hours worked per week
- trends concerning women in the accounting workforce
nationally, the unemployment rate stands at 3.5 percent. for the past six months, the unemployment rate has been either 3.5 percent or 3.6 percent. nationally, employment rose by 273,000 in february, and the number of unemployed persons at 5.8 million changed little. professional and technical services increased by 32,000, and employment in financial activities increased by 26,000.
overall tax & accounting employment
the overall tax and accounting profession was growing at a 2.3 percent annualized date, according to the latest data available from february, repeating january’s performance, but down from december’s 2.8 percent rate.
a long-term view of earlier recessions shows the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2001 resulted in 84,300 job losses, as the overall headcount in the tax and accounting profession fell from a peak of 884,800 in july 2001 to a low of 800,5000 exactly two years later. it would take another 34 months for headcounts to recover.
the financial crash of 2007-2008 resulted in the loss of more than 98,000 jobs and took almost eight years for a full recovery. in december 2007, the profession counted 967,500 employees, then dropped to 869,000 in october 2010, and finally recovered in march 2015 with 970,800 jobs.
in fact, the number of staffers has never fully recovered from the financial meltdown, after peaking at 767,800 in january 2008, dropping to 692,900 in december 2012, and edging back up to 777,7000 in july 2019, before slipping back down to 765,700 in the latest month available, pre-coronavirus.
the new data show a total headcount in the profession of 1,035,600 employees in february, up 2,800 or 0.3 percent for the month, and up 23,000 or 2.3 percent for the year. they worked an average 36.3 hours per week, up 0.3 percent for the month and flat for the year. their hourly earnings averaged $35.04, a new record by 3 cents, up 0.1 percent for the month, and $1.16, or 3.4 percent, for the year.
staff numbered 765,700, down 11,700 or 1.5 percent for the month but up 6,200 or 0.8 percent for the year. they averaged 34.3 hours, up 18 minutes or 0.9 percent for the month but down 24 minutes or 1.2 percent for the year. they made $27.70 an hour, a new high and up 6 cents or 0.2 percent for the month and $1.26 or 4.8 percent for the year.
cpa firms
in the latest month, cpa firms set a new high-water mark in employment at 496,500, up 1,800 or 0.4 percent for the month and 14,500 or 3 percent for the year. workers put in 37 hours per week, down 6 minutes or 0.3 percent for the month and 42 minutes or 1.9 percent for the year. they earned $36.94, a new record by a nickel or 0.1 percent for the month, 87 cents or 2.4 percent for the year.
staff at cpa firms numbered 351,100, up 1,000 or 0.3 percent for the month and 300 or 0.1 percent for the year. they averaged 35.8 hours, up 6 minutes or 0.3 percent for the month but down half an hour or 1.4 percent for the year. earnings hit a new high of $28.62, up 20 cents or 0.7 percent for the month and $1.33 or 4.9 percent for the year.
but in the long-term, the recessionary job cuts are stark.
after the dot-com crash, cpa firms started cutting headcounts in september 2001 (remember 9/11?) and didn’t stop until june 2004. following the financial crisis, cpa firms started shedding employees in january 2009 and kept cutting until june 2011. in both eras, female owners and partners felt the brunt of the down-sizings before male staffers.
tax prep
tax preparation services employed 87,500 for january, the latest month available, down 9,600 or 9.9 percent and 5,100 or 5.5 percent for the year. but the long-term view charts a generally downward trend since june 2011when employment peaked at 137,100. on the other hand, tax shops snapped back faster than other sectors of the tax and accounting profession.
payroll services
payroll services had 181,500 employees, a new record, up 1,200 or 0.7 percent for the month and 8,600 or 5 percent for the year. they hit 37 hours for the first time, up 24 minutes or 1.1 percent for the month and 1 hour 48 minutes or 5.1 percent for the year. they got new high earnings to match, making $33.35, up 43 cents or 1.3 percent for the month and $3.43 or 11.5 percent for the year.
in the latest month, staff in payroll numbered 150,700, up 1,000 or 0.7 percent for the month and 4,400 or 3 percent for the year. their weekly hours hit a new high of 36.7, up 36 minutes or 1.7 percent for the month and 1 hour 42 minutes or 4.9 percent for the year. they made $28.31 an hour, down 8 cents or 0.3 percent for the month but up $1.54 or 5.8 percent for the year.
payroll agencies started cutting staff before 9/11, with the first blow landing on 4,400 positions in may 2001. the bloodletting continued until 2006, just in time for the financial meltdown, which saw retrenchment for years, on and off, until 2017.
bookkeeping
in the latest month, bookkeeping and other accounting services dipped slightly from the previous month’s record high to 267,300, down 600 or 0.2 percent for the month but up 9,500 or 3.7 percent for the year.
longer-term, bookkeeping agencies after 9/11 started trimming in june 2002 and continued into 2005. the financial crisis hit bookkeepers in 2008 and continued until 2011. since then, the sector has see-sawed between expansion and contraction, with the coronavirus outbreak now positioned to reverse recent gains.
women
in the latest month, the number of women employees, who consistently make up about 60% of the profession’s workforce, fell to 660,800, down 5,600 or 0.8 percent for the month but up 26,300 or 4.1 percent for the year. at cpa firms they numbered 306,600, down 500 or 0.2 percent for the month but up 9,400 or 3.2 percent for the year.
there were 92,300 women in payroll services, down 1,600 or 1.7 percent for the month but up 13,400 or 17 percent for the year.
in each of the century’s prior recessions, women were the first to be fired, and also the first to be hired back, but often in lower-paid positions than men.
how are accountants bracing for a recession?
tell us in comments
47 responses to “planning for the coronavirus recession”
robert
great article. as the countries across the globe continue to tackle the coronavirus (covid – 19) pandemic, the businesses and stock market are facing an unprecedented situation. the effect of covid 19 on the major countries has been boundless and with the forced lockdowns and low consumer confidence, the businesses are facing a huge task to remain operational while meeting their costs.
joe eckelkamp
i’m disappointed by the level of panic in the profession. yes, there will be adverse impacts on client’s, cpas and jobs, but losing 100,000 cpa jobs is “sky is falling” stuff. this is a media created hysteria. carry on.
rebecca, california
in regards to tax clients, have an online portal for upload and retrieval of documents. have options for e-signature of documents and online payment options. have a way to do conference calls with zoom or similar software so you review clients’ tax returns.
for accounting, have online accounting options: qbo, xero or hosted environment for desktop accounting software.
continue to advertise and market your business. there may be new markets that are developing and thriving that need your services.
wjg, cpa in "farm country" south dakota
i have been consulting with my farmers for the last couple of years working on freeing up working capital and reducing debt.
cathy
i think we have to ramp up our drop off, email, & mail process for quicker turnaround.
nick
we are hoping to be immune from it somewhat, but we expect it to feel much like 2008 and will have to help guide our clients through this turbulence
betty w.
file more extensions spreading out the completion of returns.
ted p., cpa
more business advisory functions with a focus on cashflow and advisory things.
john in connecticut
improve remote-service ability.
andy, los angeles, ca
helping business clients.
pricing power with many small- and medium-sized businesses is going to go way down, in my opinion.
nevertheless, the needs for service among these client groups will continue to be huge, and those accountants and tax pros who truly serve biz clients will emerge victoriously.
john finning
offer to help clients with analytics and budgeting
carl in connecticut
we are actively working on coaching companies to survive this downturn.
dean, florida cpa
just like past “recessions”. keep working; hold costs and defer some exp/improvements until later.
russell king
i am working on utilizing telecommunication, and possibly lowering rates, although there is increased cost for technology and security issues.
kevin j collins
1) be vigilant in not performing work for clients that already owe you money.
2) up your collection efforts
2) watch your staffing levels and be quick to cut any questionable staff post 4/15.
3) watch discretionary expenses
4) monitor the financial well being of clients, especially those in more susceptible industries
veronica
cutting costs and reassuring clients
michael royer
communicating with staff
assessing excess capacity issues
discussions with our bank and vendors.
developing a contingency plan for all aspects of our business.
hugh, cpa, president and founder
increase advisory services!
michael h simms
prepare for a recession? actively engaging clients now with proactive advice tax planning and business management strategies to guide them through the current dynamic and into the new paradigm
gordon jack
get in front of clients more often, make them know that you are their trusted partner through the process. show them that you value them as a client.
mcp, az cpa
positive attitudes. move applicable clients online. at every chance, inquire about assisting specific clients with specific services.
jody padar
get ahead of it! hello advisory… be there for your customers! stay positive.
karen schwimmer
i already work from home and have the ability to send and receive documents remotely so i’m not particularly worried. my overhead is low, but i plan further cuts after tax season. all non-vital bills are going. stockpiling money earned this season.
jeffrey barrett
stay on top of new regulations and laws. stay in communication with clients.
bh, cpa and partner, jacksonville, fla.
reach out to clients that are heavily affected (restaurants, hospitality, etc.) to help by reducing the scope of work or offering a discount until things settle down.
mjk, cpa, maryland
just have liquidity (cash on hand) and supplies on hand, and try to keep in good health.
kathleen, cpa ea, illinois
now is the time to make sure all of your systems are sunning in the most efficient way they can. not only working remotely, but training clients to be better about the security of their confidential information, offering delivery and pickup services to those that do not have computers (many of my seniors), streamlining processes when you have multiple employees and maintaining the highest quality of tax return preparation.
robert krim
review normal workload, and attempt to project the effect the virus will have on this workload. discuss the situation with staff, and get their input. contact clients and discuss possible solutions to their problems and concerns. under any circumstances be positive!
kelli cox
i think we need to start looking at cash flow and cost-saving issues now–even though we have money coming in from tax season we must plan on revenues slowing down.
michigan ea
this one you couldn’t see coming, so we are doing all our returns by drop off, mail, email or fax.
lsc
small business clients will have a hard time with a recession. if the government helps small businesses like they’re helping airlines and other big businesses, we could help them get whatever assistance becomes available.
victoria martin
always be conservative in your approach to budgeting and cash flow projections. prepare for the worst and hope for the best. don’t deplete all cash reserves to the bare bones. some cpas, by nature, are conservative, but i have seen a lot over the years who literally live paycheck to paycheck. if you don’t have reserves, something like the current pandemic could send your firm into bankruptcy.
kevin cloward
working remote, cutting costs, leveraging technology
perry barnett
stay in contact with clients and ask them what is happening in their business, as well as upstream and downstream. this will allow the cpa firm to plan ahead with the cpa firm’s decisions.
alysha
less staff and increased workloads.
sandy durke
make sure to eliminate unnecessary overhead. no more business lunches, etc.
steven bankler cpa
last year we converted to all laptops and cloud applications. employees are now free to work from home.
trh cpa
many industries will be impacted while some will not. the accounting and payroll needs may modify some, but the need for current accounting will increase so management will no how to respond. i don’t expect the time demands for our services to decrease but collection becomes a concern.
brett
unfortunately, we may have to lay off bookkeepers and other staff if the recession hits hard enough. i’m already hearing people talking about going under or getting laid off. i’m saddened this happened so quickly and dramatically.
mike mcc.
have a defined process for client acquisition and engagement management.
les in minnesota
brace clients for reduced revenues, assist with possible cost controls. keep close attention to firm receivables and continue to be a trusted advisor.
john finning
prepare to consult with clients on cost reduction
bl cpa
review with clients their plans & cash flows.
paul, salt lake city
collect fees upfront; keep slow-paying clients on a short leash
jerry mchale
we will need to bring on staff – we don’t do tax work, but are heavily involved in bankruptcy.
tb jr
hunker down on hiring and new systems; perhaps bring most training in house.
misssouri cpa
we have an employee quarantined because he went on a cruise last week.