cannabis cpa carves out investment research niche

matthew karnes suggests ancillary businesses, not growers.

by liz gold
cannabizcpa.pro

by 2022, matthew karnes, cpa, said he expects every state in the country will have implemented either a medical-only or a fully legal cannabis market to reach $35 billion in retail sales.

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karnes, who is the founder of greenwave advisors, talked about his projections for the industry’s growth in the opening keynote for the nysscpa cannabis conference.

“the growth will come from new states as opposed to existing legal states,” he said, adding the need for ancillary businesses and opportunities for investment will further fuel the industry’s fast-paced growth. “similar to the progression of same-sex marriage, we expect an eventual change in federal law as the number of states that permit cannabis continues to increase.”

karnes said he was struck by the significant level of interest among participants of the conference, which included guest speakers and sponsorship from grassi & co., citrin cooperman, and indiva advisors.

“there were many questions from the audience after the presentation,” he said. “it was good to see that many are engaged and interested in the development of the industry.”

and with good reason. according to new york city comptroller scott m. stringer, there’s a potential $3.1 billion adult-use marijuana market for new york state, including $1.1 billion for nyc alone. in other words, new york city could realize $336 million in tax revenue from legalizing adult-use marijuana, on top of $436 million for the state.

karnes said he predicts the adult-use cannabis program in new york will be legalized next year and implemented in 2020, and like other states that are fully legal, will consolidate with its existing medical market and be regulated under one authority. he’s been working in the industry since he founded greenwave advisors in 2014, conducting research to help investors make informed decisions given the market and providing due diligence consulting, as well as helping hopeful cannabusinesses go through the application process to gain their licenses in states across the country.

greenwave advisors is a culmination of karnes’ skills and his experience cutting his teeth at the big four and then heading to wall street as an equity analyst – as well as the result of life events. he decided to start the company after the hedge fund he was working for went under and he took time off to care for his ailing mother, who had cancer. when it was time to look for a new job, he looked around and realized it wasn’t that easy.

around the same time, he was reading about medical marijuana and saw that there was a cannabis investor conference in boston. he took the plunge and went, not knowing what to expect.

“i was surprised by what i learned so i just kept going to other conferences,” he said. “i had that gut feeling that the industry was going to progress and that there was definitely going to be a need for financial and accounting professionals. given that cannabis remains illegal at the federal level, those with experience have likely stayed clear of seeking employment in the industry.”

more importantly, he realized the necessity of getting information for investors. “it was necessary to use my auditing and accounting skills,” he said. “the information wasn’t handed it to me. it wasn’t in an sec filing and generally not readily available from other sources. i had to put my auditing hat on and decipher what was relevant and sensible.”

as a result, greenwave advisors was born. karnes said greenwave’s services include research, due diligence, valuation, and capital introduction consulting. as the industry continues to evolve, so will greenwave advisors.

karnes is also starting to focus on developing research on fund managers who are investing in cannabusinesses. “it’s particularly important in the cannabis space as more and more funds are emerging.  we thought it relevant and timely to provide investors our view on who the ‘bad actors’ (fund manager) are behind other ‘bad actors’ (cannabis company),” he said.

while he’s able to collect data from various states, he said most of his work is putting out information on where he thinks the industry is going and how he thinks it’s going to get there.

karnes said canada’s legalization of adult-use cannabis was a catalyst for significant movement in the sector’s stock performance. “stocks went up exponentially and many now speculate what company is ‘next’ to ‘reach orbit.’” he’s also seeing more capital deployed into the cannabis sector as well as more multistate operators raising capital in canada through the canadian stock exchange, which enables them to come back to the states and expand.

in terms of successful investments, karnes said he would be cautious about putting money into cultivation businesses. “cultivation is a commodity and prices are coming down pretty significantly,” he said, adding, in states with unlimited numbers of licenses, “a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money. you have to be careful.”

karnes will tell you, investing in cannabis is not a lottery ticket.

“by and large there is an abundance of growers,” he said. “prices are falling and the costs are significant, compounded by an extraordinarily high tax burden. consequently, many businesses will fail with only a small percentage that will succeed.”

instead of a grow or cultivation facility, where karnes said the returns aren’t that significant, he points to ancillary businesses such as seed-to-sale companies or lab companies as more viable investments.

karnes said moving forward, when adult-use cannabis is legalized federally, ways of doing business in the industry will change. cash management won’t be such an issue and security guards in dispensaries won’t be needed to the extent they are needed today. banking solutions that serve as a “band-aid” for regulators won’t play as big a role as they do now.

“there’s so much information out there, but many don’t have the skill set to determine what is or is not relevant to an investment decision. the combination of my experience as an auditor and equity analyst on both the buy side and sell side uniquely positions greenwave advisors as a valuable resource for investors,“ he said.